Final Blog

What an interesting way to understand weather and climate, a hypothetical comparison of the climate of our chosen location over 200 million years. Initially it seemed to be an almost daunting task, but it really proves to be very intriguing, speculative, but intriguing. I will begin with the current condition of Deadhorse, Alaska give or take 20 years. A flat projection of the earth is used for ease of location setting. I have not found a suitable oval projection that shows the northern latitudes very well. The red arrow indicates the location of Deadhorse. The climagraph is current for the past 20 years.

                                 nationsonline.org

                                            usclimatedata.com

At 71N it is clearly in the polar latitudes and as Koppen-Geiger classifies it Dfc, we will compare the location to the past and the future by 100 million years.

Previewing the continental drift for the time periods, the city of Deadhorse can safely be assumed not to exist in the future and we know it didn't exist in the past, however the general geographic region appears to remain in the polar region for the 200 million year time frame.

A 100 million years ago, my interpertation of the Koppen-Geiger classification would place Deahorse in the Dfb catagory due to the absence of the maritime influence of the Arctic Ocean, as shown on the map. The temperature classification also changed with the lowering latitude to about 50N, meaning a warm summer, and less than polar winter, but still keeping the precipitation as snow in the winter months.

    http://www.cpgeosystems.com/mollglobe.html

Based on the reclassification, I created the following climagraph estimating what I felt the annual conditions would be.

As we compare the climagraph from the past to the present we see precipitation remaining about the same but the temperature has risen. I account for the temperature rise because of the lower latitude location in the past. 

Now lets move 100 million years into the future. The shape of things to come! Predictions of the climate in Deadhorse become very difficult when you look at the rest of the world. The water coverage has increased, and I will assume that the tilt of the earth is still the same, and no astronomical event occurred, like we moved closer to the sun, or the moon moved or was removed and that the poles are still the same at 90N and 90S. Let's look at the map.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGACbD4zbWs

The maritime influence appears to be about the same as today and location appears to have moved further north to maybe 80N. Based on these assumptions I created to following climograph.

 

The average temperature increased by a few degrees in my hypothetical graph because of the increase in water on the surface of the earth I postulate that the heat exchange in the ocean inreased more to the north, resulting in a warmer climate during the summer months, but a colder temperature in winter because of the lack of solar radiation in the higher latitude, around 80N. 

 My new classification of the future climate accordint ot Kopper-Geiger would ET or EF, polar tuntra or polar frost. 

A very interesting perspective of looking into the past and future.

Deadhorse, Alaska vs. Valdez Alaska, 500 miles apart sharing the same climate classification according to Koppen-Geiger, and yet different climates.

                                 akhistory.org

 

The climatic regions over the 10 degrees of latitude in Alaska very greatly and are not discernable in the classification of the area by Koppen Geiger. 

Influencing the dramatic range of climate classifications is the location of the two cities and their relationship to two different oceans, the polar jet consistently over the northern part of the state and the persistent Aleutian low across the southwestern section of the state. Yet with these two distinct masses the precipitation and temperatures are relatively consistent, below zero temperatures in winter and summer temperatures that can reach into the 80's. Precipitation between the two cities is also relatively consistent with the exception of an occasional anomoly in the Aleutian low that will bring a blizzard into the Gulf of Alaska region.

In all even though the sites are 500 miles apart in the same state and share some common attributes, temperature ranges and annual precipitation, the are in totally different climatic regions.

Climatology of Deadhorse, AK

Dfc, wow not what I would expect as a climate classification for Deadhorse, Alaska. Snow, fully humid, cool summer, OK, I believe the snow but wouldn't Polar fit better? I see fully humid since it is only 9km from the Arctic Ocean, but a cool summer, OK if one believes 80 degree temps as cool. Meso scale influences are predominately large water bodies, yes the Arctic Ocean, not mountain ranges on the coast and no ingredients for hurricanes. The edge of the polar jet and mid latitude jet centers over Deadhorse and causes the oscillation of the air masses which helps explain the classification. Convergence and divergence are frequent occurrences, which helps explain, at least in my mind the classification. Solar angle probably has the most influence for the classification. Granted its on the macro scale but it has a huge influence on the meso scale. Micro scale influences are limited in this coastal area to the winds and the ocean condition, whether the ice froms early in the season or later and lasts longer or shorter than normal. Could this be an indicator of global warming or not? I'm on the skeptical side.
Anthropogenic influences are almost non existent with a population of under 50 permanent residents, but the influence of 300 to 500 oil rigs might cause some temporary spikes in temperatures or influences in weather station readings.
The charts below show support for a very consistent climate over the past 5 years.

Temperature, pressure and wind for 12/1/2006-12/1/2007

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/PALP





 Temperature, pressure, and wind as of 12/1/2011

 

 http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/PALP

As you compare the 5 year period, they are almost identical, showing very little if any change in the climate in Deadhorse, AK.