What an interesting way to understand weather and climate, a hypothetical comparison of the climate of our chosen location over 200 million years. Initially it seemed to be an almost daunting task, but it really proves to be very intriguing, speculative, but intriguing. I will begin with the current condition of Deadhorse, Alaska give or take 20 years. A flat projection of the earth is used for ease of location setting. I have not found a suitable oval projection that shows the northern latitudes very well. The red arrow indicates the location of Deadhorse. The climagraph is current for the past 20 years.
nationsonline.org
usclimatedata.com
At 71N it is clearly in the polar latitudes and as Koppen-Geiger classifies it Dfc, we will compare the location to the past and the future by 100 million years.
Previewing the continental drift for the time periods, the city of Deadhorse can safely be assumed not to exist in the future and we know it didn't exist in the past, however the general geographic region appears to remain in the polar region for the 200 million year time frame.
A 100 million years ago, my interpertation of the Koppen-Geiger classification would place Deahorse in the Dfb catagory due to the absence of the maritime influence of the Arctic Ocean, as shown on the map. The temperature classification also changed with the lowering latitude to about 50N, meaning a warm summer, and less than polar winter, but still keeping the precipitation as snow in the winter months.
Based on the reclassification, I created the following climagraph estimating what I felt the annual conditions would be.
As we compare the climagraph from the past to the present we see precipitation remaining about the same but the temperature has risen. I account for the temperature rise because of the lower latitude location in the past.
Now lets move 100 million years into the future. The shape of things to come! Predictions of the climate in Deadhorse become very difficult when you look at the rest of the world. The water coverage has increased, and I will assume that the tilt of the earth is still the same, and no astronomical event occurred, like we moved closer to the sun, or the moon moved or was removed and that the poles are still the same at 90N and 90S. Let's look at the map.
The maritime influence appears to be about the same as today and location appears to have moved further north to maybe 80N. Based on these assumptions I created to following climograph.
The average temperature increased by a few degrees in my hypothetical graph because of the increase in water on the surface of the earth I postulate that the heat exchange in the ocean inreased more to the north, resulting in a warmer climate during the summer months, but a colder temperature in winter because of the lack of solar radiation in the higher latitude, around 80N.
My new classification of the future climate accordint ot Kopper-Geiger would ET or EF, polar tuntra or polar frost.
A very interesting perspective of looking into the past and future.
