Final Blog

What an interesting way to understand weather and climate, a hypothetical comparison of the climate of our chosen location over 200 million years. Initially it seemed to be an almost daunting task, but it really proves to be very intriguing, speculative, but intriguing. I will begin with the current condition of Deadhorse, Alaska give or take 20 years. A flat projection of the earth is used for ease of location setting. I have not found a suitable oval projection that shows the northern latitudes very well. The red arrow indicates the location of Deadhorse. The climagraph is current for the past 20 years.

                                 nationsonline.org

                                            usclimatedata.com

At 71N it is clearly in the polar latitudes and as Koppen-Geiger classifies it Dfc, we will compare the location to the past and the future by 100 million years.

Previewing the continental drift for the time periods, the city of Deadhorse can safely be assumed not to exist in the future and we know it didn't exist in the past, however the general geographic region appears to remain in the polar region for the 200 million year time frame.

A 100 million years ago, my interpertation of the Koppen-Geiger classification would place Deahorse in the Dfb catagory due to the absence of the maritime influence of the Arctic Ocean, as shown on the map. The temperature classification also changed with the lowering latitude to about 50N, meaning a warm summer, and less than polar winter, but still keeping the precipitation as snow in the winter months.

    http://www.cpgeosystems.com/mollglobe.html

Based on the reclassification, I created the following climagraph estimating what I felt the annual conditions would be.

As we compare the climagraph from the past to the present we see precipitation remaining about the same but the temperature has risen. I account for the temperature rise because of the lower latitude location in the past. 

Now lets move 100 million years into the future. The shape of things to come! Predictions of the climate in Deadhorse become very difficult when you look at the rest of the world. The water coverage has increased, and I will assume that the tilt of the earth is still the same, and no astronomical event occurred, like we moved closer to the sun, or the moon moved or was removed and that the poles are still the same at 90N and 90S. Let's look at the map.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGACbD4zbWs

The maritime influence appears to be about the same as today and location appears to have moved further north to maybe 80N. Based on these assumptions I created to following climograph.

 

The average temperature increased by a few degrees in my hypothetical graph because of the increase in water on the surface of the earth I postulate that the heat exchange in the ocean inreased more to the north, resulting in a warmer climate during the summer months, but a colder temperature in winter because of the lack of solar radiation in the higher latitude, around 80N. 

 My new classification of the future climate accordint ot Kopper-Geiger would ET or EF, polar tuntra or polar frost. 

A very interesting perspective of looking into the past and future.

Deadhorse, Alaska vs. Valdez Alaska, 500 miles apart sharing the same climate classification according to Koppen-Geiger, and yet different climates.

                                 akhistory.org

 

The climatic regions over the 10 degrees of latitude in Alaska very greatly and are not discernable in the classification of the area by Koppen Geiger. 

Influencing the dramatic range of climate classifications is the location of the two cities and their relationship to two different oceans, the polar jet consistently over the northern part of the state and the persistent Aleutian low across the southwestern section of the state. Yet with these two distinct masses the precipitation and temperatures are relatively consistent, below zero temperatures in winter and summer temperatures that can reach into the 80's. Precipitation between the two cities is also relatively consistent with the exception of an occasional anomoly in the Aleutian low that will bring a blizzard into the Gulf of Alaska region.

In all even though the sites are 500 miles apart in the same state and share some common attributes, temperature ranges and annual precipitation, the are in totally different climatic regions.

Climatology of Deadhorse, AK

Dfc, wow not what I would expect as a climate classification for Deadhorse, Alaska. Snow, fully humid, cool summer, OK, I believe the snow but wouldn't Polar fit better? I see fully humid since it is only 9km from the Arctic Ocean, but a cool summer, OK if one believes 80 degree temps as cool. Meso scale influences are predominately large water bodies, yes the Arctic Ocean, not mountain ranges on the coast and no ingredients for hurricanes. The edge of the polar jet and mid latitude jet centers over Deadhorse and causes the oscillation of the air masses which helps explain the classification. Convergence and divergence are frequent occurrences, which helps explain, at least in my mind the classification. Solar angle probably has the most influence for the classification. Granted its on the macro scale but it has a huge influence on the meso scale. Micro scale influences are limited in this coastal area to the winds and the ocean condition, whether the ice froms early in the season or later and lasts longer or shorter than normal. Could this be an indicator of global warming or not? I'm on the skeptical side.
Anthropogenic influences are almost non existent with a population of under 50 permanent residents, but the influence of 300 to 500 oil rigs might cause some temporary spikes in temperatures or influences in weather station readings.
The charts below show support for a very consistent climate over the past 5 years.

Temperature, pressure and wind for 12/1/2006-12/1/2007

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/PALP





 Temperature, pressure, and wind as of 12/1/2011

 

 http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/PALP

As you compare the 5 year period, they are almost identical, showing very little if any change in the climate in Deadhorse, AK.  

Blog 3: Contrast and Compare

Deadhorse, Alaska vs. Liberia, Costa Rica, what a combination of polar opposites. From the Arctic Circle to the Equatorial zone, maritime polar and continental polar, to maritime tropic, comparisons are few and far between, but contrasts are almost too many to list. Seasonality is opposite but the extremes are minimal for Liberia, whereas Deadhorse has utmost extremes. Liberia is now ending the rainy season (winter) and beginning an almost summertime season. Deadhorse on the other hand ended its warm season a month or two ago, and is almost in the death grips of winter. Daytime temperatures hover in the twenties and soon will be lower that, while lows are near zero and below, only to get even colder. No warm tropical breezes up here, however no arctic blasts of cold air travel down to Liberia either. The ITCZ plays a part in the movement of warm air north, but gets interrupted by the mid-latitude tropopause, and mixed in with the arctic tropopause.

The comparisons occur in geographies more so than weather. Both locations are in close proximity to oceans and very close in elevations but the difference in latitudes ends the similarities. Changes in latitudes result in changes in attitudes

                                      Ocean Fun in the Arctic!

                                      SeaWorld.org


                                      Where most people would enjoy ocean fun!!

                                 adorakamalia.blogspot.com

 Where would you enjoy yourself most? At 70N or 5N? I would rather be at 5N.
 

Blog Two, Air Masses and Maps

Blog 2                                                                                     Deadhorse, Alaska           

Deadhorse, being located in the Arctic, falls in the maritime arctic and continental arctic air masses. Its particular location, edging on the Beaufort Sea, places it in a semi permanent pressure pattern, named the Beaufort High, which is a high-pressure center or ridge, predominately present in winter. So what does that mean for the local weather? It is predominately blown in from the east and northeast. The Brooks mountain range to the southwest of Deadhorse, acts as the barrier to block air masses from the south, so for the local weather, the major influence is the ocean and the continental polar air mass. Combine these and small intense storms develop. Though short-lived, they can produce blizzard conditions in winter and near tropical conditions in summer. Fog and freezing mist are common conditions in the fall. The deep winter type conditions typically occur in late December through March.

            The image below, Figure 1, displays an updated daily prevalent weather condition. Interesting how fog consumes approximately one-quarter of the state.

Figure 1, courtesy of National Digital Forecast Database

Figure 2, courtesy of NOAA

Figure 2, is a Northern Hemisphere map of current frontal activity as of 11/1/11. As you view the North Alaskan coast you see the cold front approaching landfall verifying the forecast of : Overcast with snow showers. High of 27°F with a wind chill of -15°F. Winds from the SW at 20 mph with gusts to 44. Chance of snow 80% with accumulations up to 2.0 in possible. (1)

1. Weather Underground: Deadhorse Alpine Airstrip, AK.

Deadhorse Alaska - Blog One

                  The location for my blog is Deadhorse, Alaska. It is an unincorporated community of 25-50 permanent residents, servicing the oil drilling operations located nearby in Prudhoe Bay. Founded in 1967, after the discovery of the Prudhoe Bay oil field, it is located 9.5 miles inland from the Arctic Ocean. I would classify the location as maritime, not really on the coast and not really inland but near or by the ocean. At 70.3°N, I wouldn’t expect what we might consider of maritime locations at lower latitudes. The ocean freezes over, the vegetation is grassland, and the wind constantly blows. Temperature differential between summer and winter on average is 51°, with the extremes close to a difference of 140°.

                  The weather station is located at the Deadhorse Alpine Airstrip. The chart below is a 20 year average of temperature and precipitation, along with the extremes courtsey of Weather.com.

Climate data for Deadhorse, Alaska
Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year
Record high °F (°C)	35 (1.7)	39 (3.9)	34 (1.1)	43 (6.1)	55 (12.8)	83 (28.3)	82 (27.8)	80 (26.7)	67 (19.4)	45 (7.2)	39 (3.9)	34 (1.1)	83 (-17.8)
Average high °F (°C)	-11 (-23.9)	-13 (-25)	-7 (-21.7)	7 (-13.9)	27 (-2.8)	44 (6.7)	54 (12.2)	51 (10.6)	38 (3.3)	21 (-6.1)	2 (-16.7)	-7 (-21.7)	17.2 (-8.24)
Average low °F (°C)	-23 (-30.6)	-26 (-32.2)	-22 (-30)	-8 (-22.2)	16 (-8.9)	31 (-0.6)	37 (2.8)	36 (2.2)	28 (-2.2)	10 (-12.2)	-10 (-23.3)	-19 (-28.3)	4.2 (-15.46)
Record low °F (°C)	-62 (-52.2)	-57 (-49.4)	-54 (-47.8)	-47 (-43.9)	-19 (-28.3)	18 (-7.8)	28 (-2.2)	23 (-5)	1 (-17.2)	-30 (-34.4)	-45 (-42.8)	-47 (-43.9)	-62
Precipitation inches (mm)	0.15 (3.8)	0.13 (3.3)	0.14 (3.6)	0.10 (2.5)	0.08 (2)	0.37 (9.4)	0.72 (18.3)	0.95 (24.1)	0.65 (16.5)	0.40 (10.2)	0.14 (3.6)	0.19 (4.8)	4.02 (102.1)
Source: weather.com

                  A few more interesting facts, the land from Deadhorse to the ocean is mostly a marsh and in the summer months can only be navigated by guided tours. The oil rigs are supplied during the frozen months on gravel and ice roads built by the oil companies drilling in Prudhoe Bay. Workers live on the rigs and rotate out in two or three week increments.

                  Unless one is an employee working there is not much to do in Deadhorse. The north slope of Alaska is alcohol free, mainly for safety reasons, and since 9/11, the whole oil area is a high security zone. 

Deadhorse, Alaska Airport

Looking East in summer

A.Jain-Panoramio

                                                                   Arctic Ocean View

Courtesy of Chris Scott

                                                                    Grazing Caribou

Courtesy of Bev Bullcook